Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market clearly resolves based on which candidate wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, explicitly covering potential runoff rounds. Resolution primarily references a consensus of credible media reporting, but provides a definitive backstop using official results from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) if any ambiguity arises. A long resolution deadline extending to June 30, 2027, leaves ample time for election certification and legal processes, resolving to "Other" only if an outcome is still undetermined by that cutoff. The rules are straightforward with minimal risk of unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Michelle Bolsonaro will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Michelle Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE).
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Brazilian presidential election.
- Result deadline: — If the winner is not known by 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.