Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria for this market are straightforward, asking whether Eduardo Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The rules explicitly account for potential second-round runoffs and establish a generous long-stop date of June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if no outcome is finalized by then. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, but the rules provide a precise, objective fallback to Brazil's official electoral authority, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), in the event of any reporting ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Eduardo Bolsonaro will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, accounting for any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Eduardo Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including through a potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election outcome is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Brazilian presidential election.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are unknown by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.