Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market cleanly covers the outcome of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, explicitly including any second-round runoff. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, backed up by the official results published by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) if any ambiguity arises. A generous deadline of June 30, 2027 accommodates potential legal challenges or certification delays before defaulting to a timeout resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Ronaldo Caiado will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market will resolve to Yes if Ronaldo Caiado wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second round. The market will resolve to No if another candidate wins. The market will resolve to Other if the result of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE), if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are unknown by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.