Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define the outcome based on who wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, explicitly incorporating a potential second-round runoff. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, backed by an unambiguous official source—the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (TSE)—if any ambiguity arises. A distant deadline of June 30, 2027 provides ample time for certification and legal challenges before triggering a fallback resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Romeu Zema will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second round. It features a resolution fallback to Other if the outcome remains unknown by late June 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Romeu Zema wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, taking into account any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) serving as the deciding source if any ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — The presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if the result is not known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) of Brazil in case of ambiguity
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.