Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution conditions are straightforward and track the official outcome of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, explicitly covering a potential second-round runoff. Resolution relies on consensus reporting with a direct fallback to certified data from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) if reporting is contested. The rules also feature a generous longstop deadline of June 30, 2027, resolving to "Other" only if no winner can be determined by that time. There are no unusual clauses or hidden terms that diverge from standard electoral outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Tereza Cristina will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, accounting for any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Tereza Cristina wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The market resolves No if a different candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely on official results reported by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place.
- Result resolution deadline: — If the winner is not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) of the Brazilian government
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.