Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that winning the 2026 Brazilian presidential election determines the outcome, explicitly covering potential second-round runoffs. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if results are disputed. A long timeout date of June 30, 2027 provides ample buffer for any certification delays, resulting in minimal risk of an unexpected outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Helder Barbalho will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second-round runoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Helder Barbalho wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Brazilian government's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — Scheduled date for the Brazilian presidential election.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.