Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly track the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, explicitly covering both the initial general election and any potential second-round runoff. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to the official results from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) in the event of ambiguity. A long-stop deadline of June 30, 2027 provides sufficient time for official certification, after which the market resolves to Other if no winner is determined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Pablo Marçal will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second round.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pablo Marçal wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, accounting for any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the result of the election is not known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Brazilian government's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — The presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil.
- Resolution cutoff: — The market resolves to Other if the result is not known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.