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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit in October? →

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close >99¢
Known at
$699.1K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
24 hours before
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The resolution rules are straightforward and leave minimal room for interpretation. Resolution depends strictly on a single, named objective data feed: the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle chart. The market clearly states that any one-minute candle with a High price at or above $82,500 between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on October 31 will trigger a Yes outcome, while prices from other trading pairs or exchanges are explicitly excluded.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
98.5¢99¢99.5¢100¢00:0008:0016:0000:00
20¢40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 25Oct 27Oct 29Nov 1
20¢40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 25Oct 27Oct 29Nov 1

Why it moved before close

Down 10 points · 30 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC

Close to deadline

Moved 10 pts as 71 wallets traded $50.5K in 1409 min.

Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

The market fell from 11% to 0% as the deadline approached with just 41 hours remaining in October, making Bitcoin reaching $82,500 increasingly unlikely with the spot price still nearly 7% away.

  • Largest hourly change: 07:00 UTC, 49% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.6% in the move hour, −1.7% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 41 hours after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 85,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 31 Oct 2026, 05:50 UTC

Down 61 points · 29 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The market fell from 50% to 2% as the close neared with only 57 hours left in October, making time decay the likely driver as the deadline approached without Bitcoin hitting $82,500.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +0.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 77,500 (down), ↑ 85,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 15:50 UTC

Up 22 points · 29 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market rose from 46% to 65% as part of a broader repricing across related outcomes, with higher strike levels such as $85,000 and $90,000 declining simultaneously.

  • Largest hourly change: 01:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −1.3% in the move hour, +0.8% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 85,000 (down), ↑ 90,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $82,500 during October. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle data from Binance's BTC/USDT pair, ignoring all other exchanges and trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final High price equal to or greater than $82,500 between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October. Price action prior to market creation does not count. The market resolves to No if this threshold is not reached during the specified timeframe. Resolution is decided strictly using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High prices, excluding prices from any other exchange, spot market, or trading pair.

Key dates

  • End of October coverage period: — Coverage ends at 11:59 PM ET on the last day of October.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.