Will Vox win the third-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide exceptionally clear and structured criteria for ranking parties, breaking ties via vote count and alphabetical order, and explicitly defining how joint regional lists and coalitions are attributed.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide exceptionally clear and structured criteria for ranking parties, breaking ties via vote count and alphabetical order, and explicitly defining how joint regional lists and coalitions are attributed. Official results published by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior serve as the definitive fallback source. The main detail to keep in mind is the precise breakdown of list attributions, which dictates how alliances and regional factions map to specific party totals rather than relying on post-election parliamentary group formations.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
97%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) nationwide in this election, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists nationwide, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Vox wins the third-greatest number of seats in Spain's Congress of Deputies in the 2026 general election. Ties are explicitly broken first by nationwide valid votes and then alphabetically by party name.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Vox finishes in third place when political parties are ranked by the number of seats won by their nationwide electoral lists in the 2026 Spanish general election. The market resolves No if another party wins the third-most seats. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Ties on seats are broken first by total nationwide valid votes, and then alphabetically by party name. Lists are attributed according to official proclamations regardless of individual candidates' affiliations, ignoring subsequent coalition agreements or parliamentary-group changes. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior serving as the definitive source in case of ambiguity.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Spanish Ministry of the Interior as the fallback for ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·