US recession by end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market establishes clear, objective criteria relying on authoritative official sources: the Bureau of Economic Analysis real GDP data and formal announcements from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Read the full assessment
The market establishes clear, objective criteria relying on authoritative official sources: the Bureau of Economic Analysis real GDP data and formal announcements from the National Bureau of Economic Research. The rules explicitly define what qualifies as a recession for resolution purposes (two consecutive negative quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 or a formal NBER declaration) and clarify that initial advance estimates count upon release. The timeline is tied directly to the publication of the advance estimate for Q4 2026 in early 2027, removing ambiguity about data revision schedules or market closure. Discretion is minimal because resolution is governed strictly by published government statistics and official committee statements.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Rules history
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States enters a recession during 2025 or 2026, determined either by two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth or by an official declaration from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports two consecutive quarters of negative seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 inclusive, where advance estimates are considered. The market also resolves to Yes if the NBER publicly announces that a recession occurred at any point during 2025 or 2026, provided the announcement occurs by the release of the Q4 2026 GDP advance estimate. The market resolves to No if neither condition is satisfied by the time the BEA releases the Q4 2026 advance estimate. If the Q4 2026 advance estimate is not released by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on available releases at that time. The resolution sources are the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the NBER.
Resolution source
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·