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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1? →

Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close >99¢
Known at
$78.5K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
Not captured
24 hours before
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules provide clear, objective criteria with no room for interpretation. Resolution depends strictly on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices reaching or exceeding $86,000 within the specified Eastern Time window. A direct URL and specific chart settings are provided, eliminating decider discretion and third-party exchange discrepancies.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
99.4¢99.6¢99.8¢100¢00:0008:0016:0000:00
40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 28Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
90¢95¢100¢Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 2

Why it moved before close

Down 42 points · 29 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC

Coin price

The market fell from 43% to 1%. Bitcoin dropped 4.5% over the 24-hour window, leaving it 11.4% below the $86,000 threshold and making reaching the target far less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 19:00 UTC, 94% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): 0.0% in the move hour, −4.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 7 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,000 (down), ↓ 78,000 (up), ↓ 76,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC

Up 35 points · 29 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC

Thin market

The contract surged from 9% to 43% in a concentrated move without support from underlying Bitcoin price changes, with order-book depth within 5 cents sitting at 0 and a wide spread of 84%, pointing to thin liquidity as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 18:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.1% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 82,000 (down), ↓ 74,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 18:53 UTC

Down 10 points · 28 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The market price fell from 14% to 3% as the deadline neared, with Bitcoin sitting about 7.5% below the $86,000 threshold, making reaching the target less likely as time decayed.

  • Largest hourly change: 09:00 UTC, 40% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.1% in the move hour, −1.1% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 4 days after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 29 Oct 2026, 02:35 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $86,000 on Binance between October 26 and November 1, 2026. Resolution depends exclusively on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices, ignoring other exchanges and pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final High price equal to or greater than $86,000 between October 26 at 12:00 AM ET and November 1 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or exceeds $86,000 during this specified timeframe. The deciding source is Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart data. Prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or different trading pairs are excluded.

Key dates

  • Start time: — 12:00 AM ET, start of the observation period
  • End time: — 11:59 PM ET, end of the observation period

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High prices

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.