Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?

Outcome

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close 98¢
Known at 2 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
$370.4K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before: Not captured
24 hours before: Not captured
1 hour before: 96¢

Counted back from the listed close date, 2 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market has exceptionally clear resolution mechanics tied directly to a single quantitative data source. Resolution relies exclusively on Binance 1-minute candle data for the BTC/USDT pair, checking whether the final Low price drops to or below $76,000 between October 26 at 12:00 AM ET and November 1 at 11:59 PM ET. The rules clearly state that immediate Yes resolution occurs as soon as the condition is met, and specifically exclude data from other exchanges or trading pairs, leaving virtually no room for decider discretion or ambiguity.

Wording ambiguity: Low
Source discretion: Low
Timing risk: Low
Exceptional clauses: Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 28 Oct 2026, 03:32 UTC

Price history range

Price path to close

No price

24h7dAll

Why it moved before close

Up 70 points · 29 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC

Coin price

The market rose from 7% to 75% as Bitcoin dropped 2.5% on Binance during the hour, making a dip to $76,000 much more likely.

Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
BTC (Binance): −2.5% in the move hour, −0.6% over 24 hours.
Closes 3 days after the move hour.
8 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 78,000 (up), ↑ 82,000 (down), ↓ 74,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:50 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin drops to $76,000 or lower between October 26 and November 1, 2026.

How it resolves

The market will resolve immediately to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final Low price equal to or lower than $76,000 between October 26 at 12:00 AM ET and November 1 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to No. The market relies solely on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT chart data; prices from other trading pairs, spot markets, or other exchanges are not considered.

Key dates

Start of measurement window: Oct 26, 2026 — 12:00 AM ET
End of measurement window: Nov 1, 2026 — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1m candle Low prices

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 28 Oct 2026, 03:32 UTC

Resolution rules at close

Captured Oct 26, 2026

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.