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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of What price will Bitcoin hit October 26-November 1? →

Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 26-November 1?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close >99¢
Known at
$222.7K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
Not captured
24 hours before
Not captured
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market resolves using precise, objective criteria based on a single named exchange and pair. Resolution is determined strictly by the final low price of any Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle between 12:00 AM ET on October 26 and 11:59 PM ET on November 1. It resolves immediately to Yes if a candle's low touches or dips below $74,000 within that window, and otherwise resolves to No. The rules explicitly exclude other trading pairs or exchanges, eliminating discretion or ambiguity.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
98¢98.5¢99¢99.5¢100¢01:0008:4016:2000:00
40¢60¢80¢100¢Oct 28Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
70¢80¢90¢100¢Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31Nov 2

Why it moved before close

Down 16 points · 30 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC

Coin price

Moved 16 pts as 48 wallets traded $21.6K in 1433 min.

Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

The market fell from 26% to 10% as Bitcoin rose 0.8% on Binance during the move hour, making a dip to $74,000 less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 02:00 UTC, 79% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.8% in the move hour, −1.3% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 2 days after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: ↑ 84,000 (down), ↓ 72,000 (up), ↓ 68,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 1 Nov 2026, 00:05 UTC

Up 38 points · 29 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC

Coin price

The contract price rose from 2% to 39%. Bitcoin fell 2.47% on Binance during the move hour, moving closer to the $74,000 threshold and making a dip to that level more likely, which served as the likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 20:00 UTC, 54% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −2.5% in the move hour, −2.8% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 3 days after the move hour.
  • 8 related outcomes moved in the same window, 4 in the same direction. Largest: ↓ 78,000 (up), ↓ 76,000 (up), ↑ 82,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 30 Oct 2026, 00:51 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) drops to $74,000 or lower on Binance between October 26 and November 1. It resolves solely on 1-minute candle Low prices from Binance's BTC/USDT pair, ignoring all other exchanges and pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final Low price equal to or lower than $74,000 between October 26 at 12:00 AM ET and November 1 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or falls below this price during the specified window. Only Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data is considered; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are excluded. Resolution is determined by Binance price data.

Key dates

  • Start of observation window: — 12:00 AM ET
  • End of observation window: — 11:59 PM ET

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart Low prices

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.