Will the Republicans win North Carolina in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the plurality of the statewide popular vote in North Carolina.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the plurality of the statewide popular vote in North Carolina. Resolution relies on an objective trigger: unanimous calls from three specific major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with a fallback to official state-certified results if they do not reach consensus. Standard provisions are included for candidate replacement before election day and a clear longstop date of December 31, 2029 resolving to Other if results remain undetermined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
41%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in North Carolina in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide North Carolina results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in North Carolina in the 2028 US Presidential Election, regardless of how electoral college votes are distributed.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the nominee of the Republican Party wins the most valid statewide votes in North Carolina in the 2028 Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another party's candidate or an independent candidate wins the most valid statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide North Carolina results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources are concurrent calls by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If these outlets do not reach consensus or do not make statewide calls, resolution will rely on the certified election results reported by the state government. Replacement nominees prior to election day will represent their respective party. Multi-round or ranked-choice voting systems will use final-round vote counts.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or North Carolina certified state government election results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·