0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the popular vote winner in Pennsylvania for the 2028 presidential election.
The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the popular vote winner in Pennsylvania for the 2028 presidential election. Resolution happens early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all concurrently call the race for the same candidate. If those three outlets do not reach a consensus, the market relies on the official certified statewide results published by the state government. The definitions of party affiliation, candidate replacements prior to election day, and popular vote precedence over electoral vote allocation are explicitly defined. A definitive long-stop date of December 31, 2029, resolves the market to Other if results remain undetermined.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
66%
chance▲ +0.5 pts · 24h
The price rose from 53% to 66%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
News check pending.
A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.
AI-generated · 10 Nov 2026, 16:35 UTC
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Pennsylvania in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Pennsylvania results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
This market measures whether the Democratic Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Pennsylvania in the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Pennsylvania in the 2028 Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins the most valid statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If these sources do not reach consensus or fail to make calls, certified results from the state government decide the outcome.
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified results reported by the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·