Will the Democrats win Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the winner is determined based on the highest number of valid statewide votes in Arizona, regardless of how electoral college votes are ultimately assigned.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the winner is determined based on the highest number of valid statewide votes in Arizona, regardless of how electoral college votes are ultimately assigned. Resolution occurs when major designated networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) reach a consensus call, falling back directly to official state-certified election results if the networks do not agree. There is an explicit fallback to resolve to Other if results remain undetermined by the end of 2029, and procedures for candidate replacement are well outlined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
64%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Arizona results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the popular vote in Arizona in the 2028 US Presidential Election, regardless of how electoral college votes are ultimately distributed.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party's nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Arizona in the 2028 presidential election. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins the most valid statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If these outlets do not reach a consensus or fail to make calls, certified results reported by the Arizona state government will be used. For multi-round systems, final-round votes count.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified election results from the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·