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PoliticsCloses · in 725 days$4K volumePart of: 2028 Presidential Election: Ohio Winner →

Will the Democrats win Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The resolution rules clearly define that the outcome depends on the Democratic Party nominee winning the popular vote in Ohio in the 2028 presidential election.

Read the full assessment

The resolution rules clearly define that the outcome depends on the Democratic Party nominee winning the popular vote in Ohio in the 2028 presidential election. Resolution triggers as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If these specific media sources do not reach a consensus or fail to make a call, the market falls back to the certified statewide results from the Ohio state government. An ultimate cutoff date of December 31, 2029, resolves the market to Other if definitive results are never achieved, providing a clear and comprehensive path to resolution with minimal ambiguity.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

35%

chance

▲ +1 pts · 24h

Yes35¢
No66¢
Democratic Party · Yes · 1MO 20.0 H 40.0 L 15.5 C 34.5+14.5 (+72.5%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▲ +13 pts24h · detected 9 Nov 2026, 13:25 UTC

The price rose from 28% to 41% as outcomes across the 2028 Ohio presidential election market repriced together, with the Republican Party outcome moving down simultaneously.

  • Largest hourly change: 13:00 UTC, 79% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 729 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: Republican Party (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 13:35 UTC

Resolution rules

The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Ohio results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.

Market explained

This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the popular vote in Ohio in the 2028 US Presidential Election, regardless of how electoral college votes are distributed.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the nominee representing the Democratic Party wins the most valid statewide votes in Ohio in the 2028 Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins the most valid statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide Ohio results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If these outlets fail to reach consensus or do not make calls, resolution falls back to the certified statewide election results reported by the state government.

Resolution source

Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified statewide results reported by the Ohio state government

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·