Will the Democrats win Alaska in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines resolution conditions for the 2028 presidential race in Alaska.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines resolution conditions for the 2028 presidential race in Alaska. It accounts for Alaska's ranked-choice voting system by explicitly specifying that the final-round vote count determines the winner. Resolution relies on a unanimous consensus call across three major named news organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—or, failing consensus, the certified results published by the state government. A fallback resolution date of December 31, 2029, is set to resolve to Other if results remain undetermined. Replacement of named nominees prior to election day is handled cleanly by following the party's eventual nominee.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
25%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Alaska in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Alaska results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Alaska in the 2028 US Presidential Election. It relies on final-round vote counts if multi-round systems are used, regardless of subsequent Electoral College distributions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Alaska in the 2028 presidential election, using the final round count if ranked-choice voting applies. The market resolves to No if another party nominee or independent candidate wins the most statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide Alaska results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If these sources lack consensus or omit race calls, the certified statewide results reported by the state government decide the outcome.
Resolution source
The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or certified statewide results reported by the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·