Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by November 30, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on determining whether Iran has lost primary governmental or military control and whether an external authority has firmly established control on at least one of the four specified islands.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on determining whether Iran has lost primary governmental or military control and whether an external authority has firmly established control on at least one of the four specified islands. The rules explicitly exclude temporary raids, offshore naval presence, contested territory, or mere announcements, defaulting to a negative outcome if control remains unclear or disputed by the deadline. However, evaluating whether an occupying force has established actual control versus temporary disruption during wartime inherently requires qualitative judgment. Furthermore, resolution is based on official military or government statements combined with a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive authority.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran loses primary governmental or military control over at least one of four specified islands (Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz, or Kharg) to another authority by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the four specified islands (Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island, or Kharg Island) by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Transfers under negotiated settlements, ceasefires, surrenders, or agreements count only once actual control is established. The market resolves to No if Iran maintains control, or if control remains contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the deadline. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardments, sabotage, offshore naval presence, temporary disruptions, or unverified claims and announcements do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by official statements from relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official statements from relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·