Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on credible media reporting and official statements rather than a single definitive authority, requiring discretion to evaluate whether reports form a consensus or contradict one another.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on credible media reporting and official statements rather than a single definitive authority, requiring discretion to evaluate whether reports form a consensus or contradict one another. The rules define verbal interaction clearly to include phone, video, or in-person exchanges. However, there are specific evidential mechanics to note: if official claims are used, they can be invalidated if contradicted within three calendar days. Additionally, if the exact timing of a talk cannot be verified by credible consensus by the three-day post-deadline cutoff, the market defaults to resolving No, even if the interaction is confirmed later.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
60%
chance▲ +3.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump has a qualifying verbal interaction with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026. Resolution requires confirmation by credible media reporting or undisputed official statements within a strict three-day post-deadline reporting window.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with Donald Trump in person, by phone, or by video call between market creation and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such verbal interaction occurs within the timeframe, or if the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following the deadline. Resolution is determined by credible media reporting, or by official statements from either individual or their representatives provided those claims are unambiguous, state the talk was verbal and within the timeframe, and remain uncontradicted by the end of the third calendar day following the statement.
Resolution source
Credible media reporting, with uncontradicted statements from the specified individuals or their official representatives as a secondary source.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·