Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by November 30?
Outcome
Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Yes price before close
- 7 days before close
- 24 hours before close
- 1 hour before close
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The title omits the year, but the rules explicitly set the deadline to November 30, 2026. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than a single official source, granting substantial discretion to deciders to judge what qualifies as credible. The rules provide detailed contingency criteria for handling official statements and contradictions, including a three-day waiting period for uncontradicted claims. Notably, there is a strict confirmation cutoff: if a qualifying conversation cannot be verified by credible reporting within three days after the final deadline, the market resolves to No even if the conversation is proven to have occurred later.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before close.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Donald Trump and Friedrich Merz have a verbal interaction between market creation and November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz and Donald Trump engage in a qualifying verbal interaction, either in person or via phone or video call, between market creation and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no qualifying verbal interaction occurs within the timeframe, or if the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following the deadline. Resolution is determined by credible media reporting, or alternatively by uncontroverted statements from the individuals or their official representatives.
Key dates
- Cutoff date: — End of the timeframe for the verbal interaction to take place at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Credible media reporting, or statements by either specified individual or their official representatives.
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.