Will US gas hit $4.30 (High) in November?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly designate AAA's official website as the definitive source and specify the exact table, column, and row to check.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly designate AAA's official website as the definitive source and specify the exact table, column, and row to check. Precise fallback instructions are provided for daily observation times, missing data, and unrounded decimal comparisons. A market participant should note that the rules target November 2026 rather than the current year, and that prices are checked unrounded directly against the $4.30 threshold.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above the specified price for any date from November 1, 2026 through November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on one or more dates within the specified month, this market will resolve based on the prices observed for the remaining dates. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as published, without rounding.
Market explained
This market measures whether the US national average price of regular gasoline reaches or exceeds $4.30 at any point during November 2026, using unrounded daily AAA data captured under specific timing rules.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA is equal to or above $4.30 for any date from November 1, 2026, through November 30, 2026. The price is used as published without rounding. The market resolves to No if the price does not reach or exceed $4.30 on any evaluated date during that period. The American Automobile Association (AAA) decides the outcome via its published national average gas prices webpage. Daily prices are observed at 10:00 AM ET subject to webpage date verification, with fallbacks up to 11:59 PM ET or across remaining dates if data is missing on certain days.
Resolution source
American Automobile Association (AAA)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·