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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: YesClosed Part of Bitcoin above ___ on November 7? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 7?

Outcome

Yes

Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.

Final Yes price before close 99¢
Known at
$79.3K total volume

Yes price before the listed close date

7 days before
Not captured
24 hours before
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

This market has very specific and objective resolution rules. It identifies an exact data source (Binance BTC/USDT), the precise 1-minute candle (closing at 12:00 PM ET on November 7), and the metric to evaluate (the candle Close price). There is virtually no source discretion or timing ambiguity, though participants should be aware that the outcome relies strictly on Binance's BTC/USDT pair rather than an aggregate index or other exchanges.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

Yes price
70¢80¢90¢100¢03:0110:0016:5823:56
70¢80¢90¢100¢Nov 5Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7
70¢80¢90¢100¢Nov 6Nov 6Nov 6Nov 7

Why it moved before close

Up 13 points · 6 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The market rose from 82% to 95% as the close approached with just 9 hours remaining, making time decay toward resolution the likely driver of the upward move.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, 51% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.4% in the move hour, +0.1% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 9 hours after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: 72,000 (up), 70,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 17:20 UTC

Up 14 points · 5 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC

Close to deadline

The price rose from 77% to 91% as the market approached its November 7 deadline with Bitcoin trading above the $74,000 threshold, fitting a pattern of settling toward its expected outcome.

  • Largest hourly change: 16:00 UTC, 46% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): +0.5% in the move hour, −0.6% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 32 hours after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: 78,000 (down), 76,000 (down), 82,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 16:05 UTC

Down 20 points · 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

Coin price

The market fell from 99% to 79% as Bitcoin declined 2.88% on Binance during the hour, making holding above $74,000 less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −2.9% in the move hour, −5.5% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 33 hours after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: 78,000 (down), 76,000 (down), 82,000 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 05:35 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $74,000 on November 7. Resolution depends strictly on a single 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle close price rather than prices from other exchanges or trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on November 7 has a final Close price strictly higher than $74,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is equal to or below $74,000. Price precision follows the decimal places reported by the source. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT candle data.

Key dates

  • Target evaluation time: — The 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on this date is used for resolution.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Close prices

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.