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PolymarketResolvedOutcome: NoClosed Part of Bitcoin above ___ on November 8? →

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 8?

Outcome

No

Polymarket resolved this market to No.

Final No price before close 57¢
Known at
$18.7K total volume

No price before the listed close date

7 days before
Not captured
24 hours before
1 hour before

Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.

Low gotcha risk

Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment

Show full assessmentShow less

The rules are clearly defined and leave minimal room for interpretation. Resolution relies on a single, specific metric: the close price of the 1-minute BTC/USDT candle on Binance at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 8. A direct URL and navigation instructions are provided, eliminating decider discretion. Market participants only need to monitor that specific exchange pair at the designated timestamp, as price action on other platforms or at different times will not factor into the outcome.

Wording ambiguity
Low
Source discretion
Low
Timing risk
Low
Exceptional clauses
Low

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Price history range

Price path to close

No price
20¢40¢60¢80¢00:0108:0015:5823:56
0¢20¢40¢60¢80¢Nov 5Nov 6Nov 7Nov 8
45¢50¢55¢60¢Nov 6Nov 6Nov 7Nov 8

Why it moved before close

Down 10 points · 7 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC

Coin price

The market dropped from 48% to 37% as Bitcoin fell 0.25% on Binance in the hour, reducing the likelihood of staying above the $76,000 threshold with 9 hours remaining until expiration.

  • Largest hourly change: 15:00 UTC, larger than the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.3% in the move hour, −0.3% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 9 hours after the move hour.

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 17:05 UTC

Up 12 points · 6 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC

Related outcomes

The market rose from 42% to 54%, moving in tandem with 3 related strike price outcomes including the $74,000, $72,000, and $70,000 markets, which all shifted upward as a likely driver.

  • Largest hourly change: 17:00 UTC, 81% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.3% in the move hour, +0.6% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 31 hours after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 3 in the same direction. Largest: 74,000 (up), 72,000 (up), 70,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 7 Nov 2026, 07:20 UTC

Down 12 points · 6 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC

Coin price

The probability fell from 54% to 42% as Bitcoin dipped 0.31% on Binance during the hour, making remaining above $76,000 less likely.

  • Largest hourly change: 17:00 UTC, 85% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.3% in the move hour, −0.8% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 31 hours after the move hour.
  • 3 related outcomes moved in the same window, 0 in the same direction. Largest: 74,000 (up), 72,000 (up), 70,000 (up).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 19:50 UTC

Market explained before close

This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin exceeds $76,000 at noon ET on November 8, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on a specific 1-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT pair rather than an aggregate index or other exchanges.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 ET (noon) on November 8 has a final Close price strictly higher than $76,000. It resolves to No if the Close price is equal to or less than $76,000. Resolution is determined strictly using Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data, with price precision defined by the source's decimal places. Prices from other exchanges or pairs do not count.

Key dates

  • Evaluation time: — 12:00 ET (noon)

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle

AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Resolution rules at close

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

About this page

A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.