Spread: Oregon (-8.5)
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines a straightforward point spread condition where Oregon must win by 9 or more points to resolve to Oregon, and otherwise resolves to Michigan.
Read the full assessment
The market defines a straightforward point spread condition where Oregon must win by 9 or more points to resolve to Oregon, and otherwise resolves to Michigan. Standard sports outcomes are objectively verifiable, and clear backstop timing provisions are included, dictating a 50-50 resolution if the game is canceled or fails to produce an official result by the specified deadline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
56%
chance▼ −1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming college football game between Michigan and Oregon, originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Oregon" if Oregon win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Michigan". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Monday, November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.
Market explained
This market measures whether Oregon covers an 8.5-point spread against Michigan in their college football game originally scheduled for November 14, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Oregon if Oregon wins the game by 9 or more points. The market resolves to Michigan if Oregon does not win by at least 9 points. The market resolves 50-50 if the game is canceled, does not start by Monday, November 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned without an official result by that time, provided the outcome was not definitively determined before abandonment. The rules specify resolution according to listed resolution sources.
Resolution source
Listed resolution sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·