Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on evaluating whether the core governing structures of the Islamic Republic have been dissolved or replaced, which depends entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official declaration or designated registry.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on evaluating whether the core governing structures of the Islamic Republic have been dissolved or replaced, which depends entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official declaration or designated registry. The rules explicitly exclude internal coups, leadership successions, or partial territorial losses unless the regime loses control over a majority of Iran's population. In an ambiguous scenario—such as a military takeover by the Revolutionary Guards that sidelines the clergy but retains existing state mechanisms, or a protracted civil conflict with fragmented territorial control—determining whether a fundamentally different governing system has taken power or whether continuity was truly broken will require significant subjective interpretation by the market decider.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Islamic Republic of Iran's ruling regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern before 2027. It requires a clear break in institutional continuity or loss of control over most of the population, excluding routine succession or internal power shifts.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Islamic Republic of Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events require core structures like the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, and IRGC clerical control to be dissolved, incapacitated, replaced by a fundamentally different system, or lose de facto power over a majority of Iran's population. Routine political events, leadership succession, internal coups preserving core structures, and partial territorial losses do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·