Yoon out of custody before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes leaving custody, explicitly stating that release on bond, parole, or house arrest counts as a positive outcome, whereas transfers between prisons, courts, or correctional hospitals do not.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes leaving custody, explicitly stating that release on bond, parole, or house arrest counts as a positive outcome, whereas transfers between prisons, courts, or correctional hospitals do not. Resolution relies primarily on official government or corrections statements, with a consensus of credible reporting available as a secondary check. The deadline is specified down to the exact date, time, and time zone.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is released from state custody before 2027. Notably, being placed under house arrest or released on parole or bond qualifies as leaving state custody.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Release under house arrest, parole, bond, or any condition resulting in leaving state custody qualifies for a Yes resolution. Transfers to another custodial facility, court, or correctional hospital do not count as release. The market resolves to No if Yoon has not been released from custody by the deadline. Official information from government authorities or corrections departments serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from government authorities or corrections departments, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·