Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide a broad definition for qualifying programs, counting any new pathway to citizenship, work permits, or legal residency via payment or investment created after February 26, 2025, even if not explicitly branded as a Gold Card.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide a broad definition for qualifying programs, counting any new pathway to citizenship, work permits, or legal residency via payment or investment created after February 26, 2025, even if not explicitly branded as a Gold Card. The resolution source relies first on official information from the administration, but shifts to a consensus of credible reporting if official numbers are not published by the deadline. Participants should note that discerning what constitutes an official publication versus administration statements, or determining credible consensus figures across multiple reporting outlets, introduces potential ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether between 25,000 and 100,000 individuals purchase a Trump Administration "Gold Card" or qualifying residency/citizenship-for-investment status during the year 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if between 25,000 and 100,000 individuals purchase a Gold Card between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying individuals include anyone participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration referred to as a Gold Card or involving a pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or legal residency in exchange for payments or investment. If a reported figure falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. The market resolves No if the total falls outside this range. Resolution is determined by official information from the Trump Administration, or by a consensus of credible reporting if official numbers are not published by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump Administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·