Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly define what actions qualify as an arrest or detention, including physical custody, booking, voluntary surrender to a warrant, and house arrest, while explicitly ruling out unexecuted warrants, mere questioning, or indictments.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly define what actions qualify as an arrest or detention, including physical custody, booking, voluntary surrender to a warrant, and house arrest, while explicitly ruling out unexecuted warrants, mere questioning, or indictments. The deadline is explicitly set to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Official announcements from law enforcement or the relevant government serve as the primary source, though the decider may also rely on a consensus of credible media reporting if necessary. Overall, the market mechanics are direct, unambiguous, and align closely with standard interpretations of an arrest.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether South Korean Democratic Party Leader Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include physical custody by any level of law enforcement, voluntary surrender under an arrest warrant, formal booking or processing, being handcuffed and taken to a police station, surrendering with an attorney at a station or courthouse, or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. Unexecuted warrants, questioning without arrest, and indictments without arrest do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·