Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market requires the United States to commence an offensive intended to establish control over Iranian territory, which narrows the scope beyond standard airstrikes or limited naval skirmishes.
Read the full assessment
This market requires the United States to commence an offensive intended to establish control over Iranian territory, which narrows the scope beyond standard airstrikes or limited naval skirmishes. Determining military intent can introduce interpretive ambiguity if limited ground operations or brief border incursions occur without an explicit declaration of intent to hold territory. Additionally, resolution relies on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official government or international body, granting significant latitude to the resolving party to interpret whether an operation meets the defined criteria.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States will launch a military offensive to gain control over any Iranian territory before 2027. It defines sovereign territory based on de facto control as of November 4, 2025.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as sovereign territory of that country. The market resolves to No if no such offensive takes place by the deadline. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·