Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define the specific legal mechanism required for a positive outcome, namely formal removal under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, while explicitly excluding voluntary transfer of power under Section 3.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define the specific legal mechanism required for a positive outcome, namely formal removal under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, while explicitly excluding voluntary transfer of power under Section 3. The deadline is clearly specified as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on official US government documentation, leaving negligible room for subjective interpretation regarding whether a constitutional removal occurred. An early resolution clause allows the market to settle negatively if the subject leaves office through any other means before the deadline, which aligns directly with the market question.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of President of the United States via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is formally removed from the presidency through the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The Vice President becoming Acting President under Section 3 does not qualify. The market resolves to No if this removal does not happen by the deadline. If Trump ceases to be president before expiration for any other reason, the market may immediately resolve to No. Resolution is determined by official information from the US government.
Resolution source
official information from the US government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·