Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies either on official statements from North Korea or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving significant discretion to the decider in evaluating opaque events or rumors from a closed regime.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies either on official statements from North Korea or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving significant discretion to the decider in evaluating opaque events or rumors from a closed regime. Terms like being effectively removed or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties introduce interpretive room if health or leadership crises arise without explicit official confirmation. Additionally, an announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate positive resolution even if the actual transfer of power is scheduled for a later date.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kim Jong Un will cease to be the Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026. An announced resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if its effective date falls later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date immediately triggers a Yes resolution regardless of the effective date. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties also counts for Yes. The market resolves to No if he remains in power without interruption through the deadline. The outcome is determined by official information from Kim Jong Un and the North Korean government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·