Obama arrested before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify what actions constitute an arrest and explicitly outline what does not qualify, such as mere questioning, unexecuted warrants, or unarrested indictments.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify what actions constitute an arrest and explicitly outline what does not qualify, such as mere questioning, unexecuted warrants, or unarrested indictments. The resolution deadline is a fixed date and time (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Official government and law enforcement records serve as the primary source, with a consensus of credible reporting available as a secondary reference if official documentation is delayed or contested. The criteria closely align with the question and leave minimal room for surprise.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether former US President Barack Obama is arrested or formally detained prior to 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include being taken into physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement; voluntarily surrendering due to an arrest warrant; being booked or processed; being handcuffed and taken to a police station; surrendering at a police station or courthouse with legal counsel; or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. Non-qualifying events include unexecuted arrest warrants, brief non-arrest detentions, questioning or interviews without arrest, and indictments without arrest. The primary resolution source is official government and law enforcement information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·