Trump impeached and removed before 2028?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define both required conditions: the House approving articles of impeachment and the Senate voting to convict by the constitutional two-thirds threshold, effective upon the presiding officer's announcement.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define both required conditions: the House approving articles of impeachment and the Senate voting to convict by the constitutional two-thirds threshold, effective upon the presiding officer's announcement. Explicit exclusions prevent common edge-case confusion, clarifying that impeachment without conviction, 25th Amendment actions, and future resignation announcements do not trigger a positive resolution. Furthermore, if he leaves office for any other reason prior to conviction, the market immediately resolves to No. Resolution relies primarily on official Congressional roll call records, leaving very little room for ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
17%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is impeached and removed from the office of President of the United States by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Impeachment means the U.S. House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against Donald Trump. Removal means the U.S. Senate votes to convict Donald Trump on one or more articles of impeachment by the two-thirds vote required under the U.S. Constitution, as announced by the presiding officer of the Senate. The conviction will be considered to occur at the time of that announcement. Whip counts, statements of intended votes, and partial vote tallies will not qualify. This market will resolve to “Yes” upon a qualifying conviction, regardless of when the Senate pronounces judgment, whether it votes on disqualification from future office, whether Donald Trump vacates the office, or any legal challenge to the conviction. Impeachment without a Senate conviction will not qualify. An acquittal or dismissal of articles of impeachment will not, on its own, resolve this market. A transfer of presidential powers to the Vice President under the 25th Amendment will not qualify and will not count as leaving office. If Donald Trump formally leaves the office of President of the United States for any reason before a qualifying conviction, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. An announcement of a future resignation does not count as leaving office. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Congress, including Senate roll call votes; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump is both impeached by the U.S. House and convicted by the U.S. Senate before 2028. Notably, impeachment alone does not qualify, and Trump formally leaving office for any reason prior to conviction triggers an immediate No resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. House approves one or more articles of impeachment and the U.S. Senate convicts Donald Trump on at least one article by a two-thirds vote announced by the presiding officer before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The Yes resolution applies upon conviction regardless of subsequent legal challenges, disqualification votes, or whether he vacates the office. The market resolves to No immediately if Donald Trump formally leaves the presidency for any reason before a qualifying conviction, or if no qualifying conviction occurs by the deadline. Impeachment without conviction, 25th Amendment power transfers, and future resignation announcements do not qualify. Resolution relies on official U.S. Congress information, such as Senate roll call votes, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the U.S. Congress, including Senate roll call votes, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·