Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines a nuclear test as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a fission or fusion chain reaction, explicitly excluding dirty bombs and accidental detonations.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly defines a nuclear test as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a fission or fusion chain reaction, explicitly excluding dirty bombs and accidental detonations. The primary factor to monitor is that no single official monitoring agency or international body (such as the IAEA or CTBTO) is designated as the sole arbiter. Instead, the outcome relies on a broad consensus of credible reporting, including for unclaimed detonations. If a disputed or ambiguous seismic event occurs near the deadline or goes unacknowledged by the Iranian government, the market decider has latitude to determine whether news reports establish a sufficient consensus of Iranian responsibility.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Iran intentionally detonates a nuclear test device before 2027. It allows unclaimed detonations to qualify if credible reporting attributes the test to Iran.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran conducts an intentional non-combat detonation of a device producing a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion, regardless of yield) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Unclaimed tests qualify if attributed to Iran by credible reporting. The market resolves to No if no such test occurs by the deadline. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (dirty bombs), and third-party actions do not count. Resolution is determined by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A broad consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·