Will there be exactly 2 government shutdowns by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and objective criteria for what qualifies as a distinct federal government shutdown, detailing specific triggers such as official OMB directives or OPM operating status notices.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and objective criteria for what qualifies as a distinct federal government shutdown, detailing specific triggers such as official OMB directives or OPM operating status notices. The rules explicitly distinguish qualifying shutdowns from technical funding lapses where operations continue as normal, and clarify that partial shutdowns count while overlapping lapses merge into a single event. Although a consensus of credible reporting is permitted as a secondary reference, primary resolution relies directly on official U.S. government sources and agency announcements. The evaluation window runs through a fixed deadline of December 31, 2027, with no unusual early-resolution mechanics.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
32%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct United States federal government shutdowns due to a lapse in appropriations that go into effect between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that goes into effect within this market's timeframe - An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency") The following will not qualify as a shutdown: - A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations - Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations Each qualifying shutdown counts once, regardless of its duration or the number of agencies affected. A shutdown ends when funding authority is restored for all affected agencies. A lapse in appropriations that begins while another qualifying shutdown is still in effect will not count as a separate shutdown. If no qualifying shutdown goes into effect within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "0". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether exactly two distinct United States federal government shutdowns due to a lapse in appropriations go into effect between market creation and December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if exactly two distinct qualifying federal government shutdowns go into effect between market creation and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if the total count of qualifying shutdowns during this period is any number other than two. A qualifying shutdown occurs when a lapse in appropriations results in federal agencies suspending non-excepted operations, evidenced by an OMB directive to execute shutdown plans or an OPM status indicating operations are suspended or reduced. Partial shutdowns affecting one or more agencies qualify, while technical lapses where normal operations continue do not. Overlapping funding lapses count as a single shutdown. The primary resolution source is official U.S. government information, including OPM, with credible reporting consensus as a secondary source.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·