Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 8, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to hold the office or if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before November 8, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Participants should be aware of the early resolution clause triggered by a mere announcement, which settles the market immediately even if the effective departure date is scheduled well into the future. Official government sources or statements from Rubio take priority, but the market also allows a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for discretion if news outlets report an announcement that has not yet been formalized.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Marco Rubio ceases to serve as U.S. Secretary of State by November 8, 2026. A notable aspect is that an official announcement of his resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution even if the departure takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period between market creation and November 8, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market also immediately resolves to Yes if his resignation or removal is announced by the end date, regardless of when that departure officially takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined using official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Latest time for Marco Rubio to leave office or announce his departure for a Yes outcome.
Resolution source
Official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Marco Rubio's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.