Will 220-224 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official roll call count from the Clerk of the US House of Representatives for the first floor vote on articles of impeachment.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official roll call count from the Clerk of the US House of Representatives for the first floor vote on articles of impeachment. Specific exclusions are provided for procedural votes such as motions to table or refer. The resolution mechanism accounts for multiple votes on the same day by taking the highest count and explicitly sets a fallback outcome if no vote occurs before the December 31, 2026 deadline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor. Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered. A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him. Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held. The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered. If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No vote". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether exactly 220 to 224 US House members vote in favor of impeaching Pete Hegseth during the first legislative day a full floor vote occurs by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if between 220 and 224 US House members vote in favor of impeaching Pete Hegseth on the first legislative day a floor vote on articles of impeachment occurs. If multiple floor votes happen on that same first legislative day, the vote with the highest number of votes in favor is used. Whether the impeachment resolution actually passes does not affect resolution. The market resolves to No if the highest vote count in favor on that first legislative day falls outside the 220–224 range. If no floor vote on articles of impeachment is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No vote". Procedural votes such as motions to table, refer, commit, or previous question votes do not count. The Clerk of the US House of Representatives official roll call records decide the outcome, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·