Next US president 80+ years old at inauguration?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the chronological age of the next individual sworn in as President of the United States after Donald J.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the chronological age of the next individual sworn in as President of the United States after Donald J. Trump. The rules provide an explicit method for calculating age based on the calendar day of birth and establish a clear long-stop expiration date of March 31, 2029, resolving to No if no new president takes the oath by then. Resolution relies on a consensus of official government sources, public records, or credible reporting rather than a single specifically named database, but presidential inaugurations and birthdates are objective, widely documented public facts that leave little room for conflicting interpretations.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next individual to be sworn in as President of the United States after Donald J. Trump is the listed age or older on the day on which they are sworn in. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they are sworn in. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth. In the event that no individual other than Donald J. Trump has been sworn in as President of the United States by March 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official government sources and official public records; however, a consensus of credible sources may suffice.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next person sworn in as President of the United States after Donald J. Trump will be 80 years of age or older on their inauguration day.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the next individual sworn in as US President after Donald J. Trump is 80 years old or older on the day of swearing in, with age advancing immediately at the start of their birth date. The market resolves to No if that individual is younger than 80 on that day. The market also resolves to No if no individual other than Donald J. Trump has been sworn in as President by March 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official government sources and public records, or a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution source
A consensus of official government sources and official public records, or credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·