Iran Nuke before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on open-ended sourcing rather than a single definitive authority, allowing confirmation via international nuclear agencies, Iran's government, or credible global news sources without a specified hierarchy.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on open-ended sourcing rather than a single definitive authority, allowing confirmation via international nuclear agencies, Iran's government, or credible global news sources without a specified hierarchy. This gives the resolver wide latitude to decide what counts as credible reporting. Additionally, defining what constitutes official confirmation of possessing a nuclear weapon—such as distinguishably confirmed possession versus ambiguous claims, nuclear breakout capability, or weaponization milestones—requires subjective interpretation if reporting is unverified or conflicting.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.95 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran officially possesses a nuclear weapon before 2027 based on confirmation from specified reporting sources.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The resolution is determined based on reports from international nuclear agencies, the Iranian government, or credible global news sources.
Resolution source
International nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·