China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government or international body, requiring subjective evaluation of news coverage.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government or international body, requiring subjective evaluation of news coverage. A critical technical exception involves coast guard forces: the rules classify China's Coast Guard as military but explicitly exclude Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration. Because resolution strictly requires an encounter between the military forces of both sides, violent maritime confrontations involving only Taiwan's Coast Guard and Chinese forces would not qualify for a positive resolution despite appearing to be a clash between the two governments. Additionally, distinguishing between warning shots, minor ship ramming scrapes, and qualifying significant damage introduces interpretive boundary judgments.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether a direct military encounter involving the use of force occurs between the armed forces of China and Taiwan between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Notably, China's Coast Guard is considered part of its military for resolution, while Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration is not.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if there is a military encounter involving direct use of force between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include missile strikes, artillery fire, gunfire exchanges, direct engagement, or intentional ship ramming causing significant damage (such as a hull hole) or sinking. Warning shots, uninhabited area fire, transit through airspace or waters, and minor ramming damage (scrapes, dents) do not qualify. China Coast Guard qualifies as military, but Taiwan Coast Guard Administration does not. The market resolves to No if no such encounter occurs. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·