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PoliticsCloses · in 8 days$67.2K volumePart of: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...? →

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if the subject leaves the post before the deadline, but it includes an important early resolution condition: a simple announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers a Yes resolution, even if the actual departure date falls well beyond the market's cutoff.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves to Yes if the subject leaves the post before the deadline, but it includes an important early resolution condition: a simple announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers a Yes resolution, even if the actual departure date falls well beyond the market's cutoff. Participants should note this mismatch between an announced effective date and the immediate resolution trigger. For source verification, resolution relies on official government statements or communications from the subject, but it also allows resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting without specifying which outlets qualify.

Resolver
Medium
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

2%

chance

▲ +0.05 pts · 24h

Yes2¢
No98¢
November 21 · Yes · 1MO 12.0 H 14.5 L 2.0 C 2.4−9.7 (−80.4%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −10 pts24h · detected 11 Nov 2026, 02:40 UTC

The probability of Pete Hegseth being out as Secretary of Defense by November 21 fell from 13% to 2%. The move coincided with related outcomes repricing in the same direction, including the November 14 market which also moved down.

  • Largest hourly change: 23:00 UTC, 42% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 11 days after the move hour.
  • 1 related outcome moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: November 14 (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 11 Nov 2026, 02:50 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market explained

This market measures whether Pete Hegseth leaves his position as U.S. Secretary of Defense by November 21, 2026. A key feature is that an official announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the effective departure date is in the future.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and November 21, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market also resolves immediately to Yes if his resignation or removal is announced by the end date, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined using official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

Official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·