Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish a specific measurement time (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch) and a definitive expiration date of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish a specific measurement time (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch) and a definitive expiration date of December 31, 2026. However, there is some discretion and ambiguity regarding the price and supply data. The resolution source is specified only as 'the most liquid price source available' without naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or metric for liquidity, which leaves room for dispute if prices diverge across venues. Additionally, while the formula for FDV is clearly defined as total supply multiplied by price, the rules do not specify the authority or registry used to verify the official total token supply.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Felix's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Felix Protocol doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Felix Protocol's token achieves a fully diluted valuation above $2 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Felix's token is greater than $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV does not exceed $2B at that specified time. The market also resolves to No if Felix Protocol does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·