Yes
Polymarket resolved this market to Yes.
Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
The market resolves to Yes if Susie Wiles is announced to leave or ceases to be a member of the administration before the end of 2026. Note that an announcement of a departure resolves the market immediately even if the effective departure date is set for a later time. The resolution relies primarily on official government announcements from the administration, with a consensus of credible reporting serving as a secondary backup (noting a minor typo 'reopening' for reporting in the text). The conditions and timeframe are otherwise straightforward.
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
The market price shifted from 49% to 97%, but there is insufficient evidence or news available to identify a likely driver for the move.
The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.
AI-generated · 6 Nov 2026, 19:20 UTC
This market measures whether Susie Wiles will leave or announce her departure from the Trump administration before 2027.
The market resolves to Yes if it is announced that Susie Wiles will leave the Trump administration, or if she otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal made before the end date resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when the departure takes effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to U.S. federal government roles publicly announced by official government channels. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. Official information from the Trump administration serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.