French Presidential Election First Round Winner
4 live outcomes · highest priced: Marine Le Pen at 85% · first close Apr 18, 2027 · $123K total volume
About this event
This event tracks which candidate will receive the most valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Each market measures the likelihood of a specific listed candidate securing the highest vote total.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured with one market per candidate. Because markets resolve to the single candidate occupying the highest finishing position by valid votes won (with alphabetical tie-breaking), at most one candidate market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if its named candidate wins the most valid votes in the first round of the election. Candidates are ranked primarily by valid votes won, with ties broken by the alphabetical order of their full names as listed. If the election result is not definitively known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to 'Other'. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date: — Date the French presidential election is scheduled to take place.
- Resolution Deadline: — Market resolves to 'Other' if results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the French Government (Ministry of the Interior).
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 85% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 7% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Jordan Bardella | 2% | ▲ 1 | Low | Med | |
| Édouard Philippe | 2% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Christine Lagarde | 3% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| David Lisnard | — | — | Low | Med | |
| François Hollande | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Gabriel Attal | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | — | — | Low | Med | |
| Bruno Retailleau | — | — | Low | Low | |
| Sarah Knafo | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Dominique de Villepin | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Éric Zemmour | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Sébastien Lecornu | — | — | Low | Low | |
| François Ruffin | — | — | Low | Low | |
| Marine Tondelier | — | — | Not rated | — |