Will David Lisnard win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on the official first-round results published by the French Ministry of the Interior, with credible reporting consensus used unless ambiguity arises.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on the official first-round results published by the French Ministry of the Interior, with credible reporting consensus used unless ambiguity arises. The criteria for winning the most valid votes are straightforward. One specific condition to note is the tie-breaking rule, which resolves ties based on the alphabetical order of the candidates' listed full names in the market rather than official election procedures. Additionally, if the outcome is not definitively known by December 31, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether David Lisnard will receive the most valid votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Resolution includes an alphabetical tie-breaker rule if candidates tie for first place.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if David Lisnard wins the most valid votes in the first round, or wins via the alphabetical tie-breaker if tied. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate wins the most valid votes or wins via tie-breaker. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known definitively by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely on official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Government / Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·