Ukraine coup attempt by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31, 2027 at 14% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $158.1K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether a coup attempt will occur in Ukraine by specific milestone dates. Markets measure the occurrence of a qualifying coup attempt from market creation through the specified deadline dates.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline ladder of target dates. More than one market can resolve Yes; for instance, if a qualifying coup attempt occurs before the earlier deadline, both the earlier and later deadline markets will resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine between market creation and the specified deadline (11:59 PM ET on the given date). Otherwise, it resolves to No. A coup attempt requires a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or seize control of the Ukrainian government. Non-state revolutionary actions, protests, general unrest, or disrupted plots without attempted execution do not qualify. Government claims of foiled plots require wide, credible, independent corroboration. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- First deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
- Second deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 14% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| December 31, 2026 | 2% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med |