Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official body, requiring subjective evaluation to determine what constitutes widespread reporting.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official body, requiring subjective evaluation to determine what constitutes widespread reporting. While the rules define a coup attempt as an effort by military, security forces, or state factions, distinguishing an actual attempted execution from early-stage foiled plots or non-state revolutionary unrest introduces borderline judgment calls. In particular, government claims of foiled plots are explicitly excluded unless independent sources widely characterize them as attempted execution, which creates an interpretive threshold around whether an action progressed far enough to be considered an executed attempt.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
14%
chance▼ −0.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether a widely reported coup attempt takes place in Ukraine by December 31, 2027. It specifically excludes mere foiled plots without attempted execution, as well as actions solely by non-state actors or general unrest.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A coup attempt requires a coordinated, deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government. Claims by the Ukrainian government of foiled plots count only if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt; foiled plots or arrests without any attempted execution do not qualify, nor do non-state revolutions, protests, or unrest alone. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·