Which party will win white voters in the midterms?

This event tracks which political party will win the greatest share of white voters in the 2026 United States House midterm elections according to specified national exit polling.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of mutually exclusive markets representing political parties. Because resolution is determined by which single party wins the greatest share (with alphabetical tie-breaking), at most one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

Each market resolves to Yes if its named party wins the greatest share of white voters in national exit polling for the U.S. House, as published on the applicable CNN webpage at 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If tied for first place, the party whose name comes first alphabetically wins. If CNN exit polling is unavailable at that time, resolution will wait one full calendar day before checking CBS, then ABC. If none of the listed outlets publish exit polling by November 7, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to Other.

Key dates

• Midterm Elections: Nov 3, 2026 — 2026 midterm elections scheduled to be held
• Initial Exit Poll Review: Nov 6, 2026 — National exit polling viewed on CNN at 12:00 PM ET
• Fallback Resolution Deadline: Nov 7, 2026 — Deadline for exit polling from CNN, CBS, or ABC at 11:59 PM ET before resolving to Other

Resolution source

CNN exit polling (with fallbacks to CBS and ABC)

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 20 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC