Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- Not captured
- 1 hour before
- Not captured
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on CNN's national House exit poll for the share of white voters as published on cnn.com at a precise timestamp (12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026). Clear backup sources (CBS, then ABC) and an explicit fallback resolution to 'Other' if no data is published by November 7, 2026, are established. Participants should note the alphabetical tie-breaker rule in the event of an exact tie between parties for the top vote share.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the greatest share of white voters in the national US House midterm elections according to media exit polling. Ties are broken alphabetically by party name.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins the greatest share of white voters in the national US House midterm elections according to CNN exit polling. In a tie for first place, the party whose name comes first alphabetically wins. The market resolves to No if another party wins the greatest share (or wins an alphabetical tiebreak). The market resolves to Other if none of the listed media organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. CNN exit polling viewed at 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026, decides the outcome. If CNN data is delayed, resolution waits one full calendar day. If CNN does not provide polling, CBS serves as the first fallback, followed by ABC.
Key dates
- Election Day: — 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held.
- Initial data check: — CNN exit polling is checked at 12:00 PM ET.
- Fallback deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for listed organizations to provide polling before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
CNN exit polling (with fallbacks to CBS, then ABC)
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white voters in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN. This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026. In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically. In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below. In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC. If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.